Update: The tornado threat across Oklahoma looks nasty for Sunday. The rotation tracks below show very strong rotation which could indicated either large tornadoes or very large damaging hail. Either way, this will be a damaging outbreak of severe weather for Oklahoma.

A storm system moving into the southern Plains will produce a band of severe storms that may produce damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This will be a quick event with the storms lasting just for one day before yet another system moves into the southern Plains with more severe weather later next week.

The tornado focus will be across eastern Oklahoma where the shear will be the greatest late Sunday afternoon. So far this year, the number of tornadoes has be very low with just over a 1000 reports.

We could see 10-25 tornadoes in this event given the strength of the upper level system and the 850 mb winds. Soundings do showing winds turning with height that would indicate supercell thunderstorms with rotation.

The storms will move northeast Sunday night and weakening but will still be able to produce damaging winds and hail all the way into the Mississippi Valley.

By Henry Margusity

Expert Meteorologist with over 30 years of weather forecasting and blogging.

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